Africa's wildfire season is actually getting shorter, scientists think they know why

July 20, 2026 feature Africa's wildfire season is actually getting shorter, scientists think they know why Hannah Bird Author Sadie Harley Scientific Editor Andrew Zinin Chief Editor Africa is home to around 70% of the world's burned area—the total area of land scorched by wildfires each year—making it the planet's biggest wildfire hotspot. Yet despite this, satellite observations have revealed an unexpected trend over the past two decades: The amount of land burned across the continent has been steadily falling. A new study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, suggests one important reason why.

Rather than looking at how much rain falls each year, researchers found that "when" rain falls may play an even bigger role in controlling wildfire activity. Their analysis shows that Africa's dry season has been getting shorter because rains are arriving later in the period when landscapes would normally begin drying out, leaving less time for vegetation to become flammable. These findings could be important for improving seasonal wildfire forecasting and helping countries prepare for the effects.

A changing dry season Wildfires depend on three key ingredients: something to burn, weather conditions that allow fires to spread and an ignition source such as lightning or human activity. Across much of Africa, grasses provide abundant fuel during the dry season after months of rapid growth in the wet season. Ph.D.

researcher Sharafaldin Mohammed of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and colleagues wanted to understand whether changes in the timing of Africa's dry season could help explain the long-term decline in burned area. To do this, the researchers analyzed daily rainfall records from three independent datasets covering 1990–2023. They then compared these with satellite observations of burned area and fire counts between 2003 and 2022, allowing them to investigate how shifts in rainfall lined up with changes in wildfire activity across both northern and southern Africa.

The results show a clear pattern. Across the continent, the dry season has become shorter over the past three decades, mainly because it is starting later than it used to. In northern Africa, the onset of the dry season has been delayed by around 1.75 days every decade, while southern Africa has seen a smaller delay of about 0.4 days per decade.

Rain arriving at the right time The delayed start isn't because the rainy season lasts much longer overall. Instead, the researchers found that rainfall has increased specifically at the beginning of what would normally be the dry season. Those extra showers keep soils and vegetation moist for longer, delaying the point at which grasses dry out enough to burn easily.

As a result, the window in which fires can ignite and spread becomes shorter, with years that have wetter starts to the dry season consistently seeing fewer fires and less land burned. The team found that Africa's fire season closely mirrors its dry season. In northern Africa, fires typically occur between October and March, peaking in December, while in southern Africa, the main fire season runs from April to September, peaking around July and August.